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Spacian research

How launch schedules change

A prospective record of published targets, date precision and status changes.

Published by Spacian · Source review · Suggest a correction

Collecting evidence. Change rates and provider comparisons will be published only after at least 30 days and 50 eligible missions. These are editorial minimums, not statistical significance tests.
493missions enrolled
0days since collection began
0missions meeting exposure rules

Collection began . Report generated . Daily refreshes can lag if a source or processing job is unavailable.

What we measure

We record published schedule fields when an existing source record changes. Each source event is counted once. We preserve the full research observations separately from the shorter change history shown on mission pages.

Target change
A date or time changes while its precision category stays the same. A month becoming a day, or a day becoming a time, is counted separately as a precision change.
Status change
The provider-reported status changes. This does not establish a scrub, launch failure or a cause.
First exact target observed
A previously less precise target becomes timed after collection starts for that mission. Missions already timed at enrollment are excluded from this timing measure because we did not observe their first publication.

Which missions enter the comparison

The source is Spacian’s available launch catalog, based on Launch Library 2 and linked mission sources. New upcoming launches enter the research cohort when first observed. We keep completed and cancelled enrolled missions so outcomes do not silently remove them from the denominator.

For the change comparison, a mission must have been observed for at least seven days and have had a day or exact-time target within 90 days of enrollment. That entry target must fall within the reporting window, so older completed missions do not accumulate in later denominators. Unknown and month-only entry targets are excluded from that comparison. Counts cover changes observed in the trailing 30 days, after enrollment. Exposure lengths differ.

Provider is fixed at enrollment. Provider breakdowns require at least 20 eligible missions; the first-exact-target median requires at least 20 usable observations. Counts remain descriptive and must not be presented as reliability rankings.

What this report cannot tell you

  • Observed source changes only; catalog and collection gaps may exist.
  • Entry targets must fall in the reporting window. Each mission has at least seven days since enrollment; exposure lengths differ.
  • A schedule change does not establish a scrub, failure or its cause.
  • Provider is fixed at enrollment; comparisons are descriptive and not reliability rankings.
  • First timed-target lead time refers to the target published at that observation, not the eventual liftoff.
  • Publication thresholds are editorial minimums, not tests of statistical significance.

The source catalog can omit launches or update late. A period without recorded changes does not prove a source was continuously monitored or that an operator made no announcements elsewhere.

Sources and corrections

Launch Library 2 supplies the underlying launch records. Each public mission page links available operator sources. Our editorial policy explains sourcing and corrections. Email developer@spacian.app with a specific record or methodological concern.